According to figures published by the Ministry of Health and Social Protection, contaminations at Dame Covid have more than doubled in recent days, while the number of Covid-19 screening tests has not constantly increasing, at the same time. Are these the beginnings of a new wave of the epidemic or new peaks? The answers with Dr Tayeb Hamdi.
This step was quickly taken by Dr. Tayeb Hamdi, doctor, researcher in health policies and systems, who, requested by MoroccoLatestNews FR, projected himself towards a horizon, rather worrying as to what is taking shape possible scenarios.
“We are indeed in a wave whose causes are the relaxation of the vigilance of the population, the displacements, the immunity which decreases with regard to the seniority of the date of the vaccine injections (more than six months) or a Omicron infection… but the most significant cause is above all BA.2, which is much more transmissible than its elder BA.1”.
And Dr. Hamdi to explain to us: “Last January and February, we were under the BA.1 variant and then towards the end of March we switched to the BA.2 variant. This is the currently dominant variant in Morocco and since the end of last April it has reigned, so to speak, as absolute master over the health landscape, which explains this exponential epidemic curve in our country”.
” In my opinion we are close to a first peak, because there will be a second one with the BA.5 variant which weaves in more and more. But let’s come back to the majority BA.2 currently and whose peak is expected in ten to twenty days maximum”, said the doctor in his forecast.
The health policy and systems researcher goes on to state that “ many ingredients are there to do this, Eid El Adha, holidays, travel, tourism, meetings such as football matches etc. After this period we will have to deal with the second peak due to the BA.5 variant which is already on Moroccan soil which will become the majority in three, four or five weeks “.
The expert points out that this means that “We will have a somewhat long wave (a wave lasts up to eight weeks for each of these two variants) and we must therefore expect more than eight weeks and a wave with two peaks”.
Asked whether this was cause for concern, the researcher replied “the number of the increase in cases is not so worrying, what concerns are the effects and the serious cases. However, the mathematical relationship that there was before between the increase in cases and deaths is no longer thanks to the acquired collective immunity of the population.
There are certainly deaths but less than before, proof of which is South Africa and Portugal (less because the population is aging) coming out of a wave led by the new BA.4 and BA.5 variants of Omicron.
” In Morocco, health systems are not threatened and there is no risk of having terrible impacts in terms of serious conditions and deaths. Especially if those over 60 and people with chronic illnesses have received their three doses “, he said.
They can thus pass without significant damage, these two waves, the second of which will be more important than its predecessor, reminds Dr. Hamdi who insists on vigilance, precaution and barrier gestures.
In this summer period will he still tell us, “ it is true that the spaces are airy and less closed and people are rather outside, which reduces contamination. Except that our temperaments as good Mediterraneans during festive events (Eid, weddings, family gatherings and others) do not allow so much respect for social distancing (hugs, kisses, etc.). What makes that what we gain on the one hand by being vigilant we lose it on the other by letting go “.
And Dr. Hamdi’s final word will reserve it for ‘very vulnerable’ people” those who are very old (80 years old) and have several pathologies and who, despite the three doses received, are weakened by their handicaps (cancer, heart failure, organ transplant, kidney dialysis, etc.) and who are at risk of suffering serious forms of the disease because three or four months later, the third injection no longer has any immune effect. They must be offered the right to a fourth dose to protect them “.