The Rabat/Madrid axis .. Is it unshakeable?

The Rabat/Madrid axis .. Is it unshakeable?

This is undoubtedly one of the most striking questions that arise today in the light of the results of the last Spanish local elections and the prospects for victory for the right in the next legislative elections. The Rabat/Madrid axis, patiently built under the leadership of King Mohammed VI and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and which gave birth to a multidimensional partnership between the two kingdoms, will it be able to withstand the Spanish electoral turbulence?

Indeed, the last local elections in Spain, which marked the retreat of the left from power in Spain, caused a huge political thrill in the Mediterranean region.

And if the Spanish right, supported by an extreme right which is currently surfing on favorable winds, returns to power in Madrid, is it possible that the Kingdom of Spain will be able to rewrite its international relations and review the strategic alliances drawn up by Pedro Sanchez?

In this context, the focus is on the subject that has recently moved the lines of Spanish policy in the region. The recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over its Sahara by Madrid which provoked an unprecedented crisis with the Algerian neighbor for whom Spain came out of its legendary neutrality and took facts and causes for Morocco.

To punish her, the Algerian government has decided to freeze all commercial transactions, apart from the one, crucial in the context of international war, concerning gas. The risk for Algiers is not only to lose a precious ally in the region, but to provoke a general crisis with the whole of European architecture which, out of solidarity with Spain, takes a very dim view of the punitive approach Algerian.

It is by taking these elements into consideration that we must read and decipher the enthusiasm of the Algerian authorities in the face of the defeat of the coalition that brought Pedro Sanchez to power. For her, the swallow of this defeat necessarily announces the great political reconfiguration of the spring if the Spanish right takes power in the legislative elections scheduled for July 23rd. For Algiers, there is hope of seeing Spanish diplomacy led by the right return to the great turning point of rapprochement with Morocco.

Without expressing the slightest concern about this political development of the Spanish neighbour, the Moroccan authorities are convinced that whoever the new masters of Madrid are, there is little chance that they will reconsider the structuring decision of Spanish diplomacy to get closer of Morocco and to weave with it a multidimensional strategic partnership.

Rabat advances the idea, moreover relevant, that the Spanish turn on the Maghreb was not made on a whim or a mood of the moment as certain Algerian media like to affirm. Such a decision, with serious consequences for the whole country, was carefully considered, patiently weighed and evaluated before it was validated by the political power. A decision that engages the entire spectrum of Spanish power cannot be erased with the stroke of a pen because the country has changed its governing majority.

In support of this demonstration and this Moroccan certainty, the indisputable fact that the Spaniards, in their great political diversity, have found a vital interest for their economy and their security in developing this alliance with Morocco and running the risk of angering the Algerian neighbor.

This multifaceted partnership, which involves strengthening economic cooperation, which has taken a huge leap forward, and also involves a migratory partnership, which has helped the two countries to manage intelligently and efficiently both the organization of immigration legal than the fight against irregular immigration, a burden for both countries and a common challenge for their security.

Rabat and Madrid also cooperate closely in other key sectors for their well-being, the fight against terrorist organizations, organized crime, drug trafficking networks…so many sensitive subjects that cannot be hostage to a political mood. passenger.

Undoubtedly, if the right comes to power in Spain, the words and attitudes may change and be perceived as different from the speeches of the left, but the heart of the reactor, namely the full support of the Spanish authorities for the proposed autonomy project by Morocco to put an end to this regional discord, will not be touched.

The two capitals, Rabat and Madrid seem to have started a sequence of strategic alliance which knows no reversal. Whatever the team in power, small adjustments to allow the Madrid-Algiers axis to regain some heat are undoubtedly possible, but the reverse gear to backtrack on an issue as crucial as the Moroccan Sahara seems impossible to imagine.


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