The Board of Bank Al Maghrib (BAM) met this Wednesday, October 13, a little longer than usual will tell us the Wali of BAM, Abdellatif Jouhari, during a press briefing of more than two hours by videoconference .
In light of the evolution of the health situation, the economic situation at the national and international levels, as well as the medium-term macroeconomic projections of the Central Bank, Jouhari will note that the main indicators of economic activity show that the economy national is returning to a promising dynamic.
The recovery is expected to continue, thanks to the notable progress of the vaccination campaign
A dynamic which gives rise to many hopes since BAM has revised upwards its growth forecast for 2021 to 6.2%, revised in this respect upwards by 0.9 point compared to the forecasts of last June, the Kingdom signing there, the best performance of the MENA region and Africa. At the national level, the latest national accounts data relating to the second quarter of 2021, indicate a growth of 15.2%, year-on-year (comparison of one year compared to its previous one), with increases of 18.6% agricultural value added and 14.8% of that of non-agricultural activities.
The recovery is expected to continue, supported by the notable progress of the vaccination campaign, the very good agricultural season, the fiscal stimulus as well as the accommodative stance of monetary policy. This improvement reflects an 18.8% increase in agricultural value added, taking into account a cereal harvest of 103.2 million quintals, and a 4.6% increase in the non-agricultural one.
Through his evaluations the Wali of BAM, Abdellatif Jouhari estimated that the monetary stance remained very accommodating according to him, so much so that it was judged in particular that the current level of the key rate remains appropriate, so has t – it was decided to keep it unchanged at 1.5%. BAM urged all players in the financial system to respond to the royal appeal and take advantage of this positive context.
Abdellatif Jouhari, will review several other themes, including that of health developments at the national level, for which he will praise the vaccination campaign with more than 20 million citizens having benefited from the second dose, (the extension of the vaccine to children from 12 to 17 years old as well as from the 3th dose not being outdone) only at the international level where the outlook remains uncertain.
405,000 jobs created, including 318,000 for rural areas, announces Jouhari
He will note the relative acceleration of inflation to 1.6% on average in the second quarter of 2021 and to 2.2% in July, inflation fell to 0.8% in August in connection with the fall in prices of food products at volatile prices. The Council of the Institution having recorded it in a context marked by the increase in the price of energy products, the recovery of domestic demand and the accentuation of imported inflation. Lady inflation should stand at 1.2% for the whole of this year and settle at 1.6% in 2022, after a rate of 0.7% in 2020. Its underlying component should drop from 0 , 5% on average in 2020 to 1.4% in 2021 and would reach 2.1% in 2022.
As for the labor market, the data for the first six months show the creation of 405,000 jobs (agriculture 318,000, BTP 108,000 and other services 40,000), after a loss of 589,000,000 jobs a year earlier. 533,000 job seekers joined the market during this period, resulting in an activity rate that improved by 1.3 points to 46.1% while the unemployment rate worsened by 0.5 points at 12.8%.
Regarding foreign trade, the Wali of BAM praised the improvement in exports with an increase in exports of 22.6% in 2021 then 5.9% in 2022, mainly driven by sales of phosphate and derivatives and automobile construction. Imports for them should increase by 19.6% in 2021, mainly reflecting the expected increases in purchases of capital and consumer goods, as well as the increase in the energy bill, before slowing down their pace. at 4% in 2022.
Abdellatif Jouhari will pout about travel receipts with a further drop of 8.6% to 33.3 billion dirhams expected in 2021 after that of 53.7% in 2020. In 2022, under the assumption of relief significant of these measures, these revenues would rebound to 60.7 billion, a level which remains however well below that of 78.7 billion recorded in 2019. And we arrive there, for their part, after an increase of 4, 9% in 2020, MRE transfers would show a significant increase of 27.7% in 2021 to reach a record of 87 billion dirhams, before being forecast to decrease by 5% to 82.7 billion in 2022. In Under these conditions, the current account deficit would widen from 1.5% of GDP in 2020 to 2.5% in 2021 before easing to 1.4% in 2022.
Deceleration of loans to private companies from 4.2% to 2.5%
Regarding foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, they should oscillate around the equivalent of 3% of GDP over the forecast horizon after 2.5% in 2021. Taking into account, in particular, financing planned external treasury and SDR allocation of 10.8 billion dirhams, official reserve assets would stand at 335 billion dirhams at the end of 2021 and 345.1 billion at the end of 2022, i.e. the equivalent of more 7 months of imports of goods and services.
Bank lending to the non-financial sector will not have escaped the critical eye of neither the Board nor the Wali of BAM, the rate of growth of non-financial credit rose from 4.1% in June to 3.2% in July and August 2021 with the particularity of a deceleration in loans to private companies from 4.2% to 2.5%. Its growth slowed slightly to 3.3% in the second quarter. It should end this year with an increase of 3.7% then increase by 3.8% in 2022. As regards bad debts, their ratio to credit increased from 8.4% in June to 8.7% in July and August 2021.
In terms of public finances, after 2020, a slight attenuation is expected for 2021 and 2022. Budget execution after the first eight months of the year shows a deficit of 48.8 billion dirhams, up by 2.2 billion. billion year over year. Ordinary receipts, excluding privatization, improved by 9.3%, driven by the increase in tax revenue. The evolution covers in particular an increase of 22.7% of VAT receipts, 12%, 8% of that of the IR and a decrease of 9.9% of the income of the CIT.
Overall expenditure increased by 8%, with in particular an increase of 6.1% in expenditure on goods and services and 31.7% in the compensation charge and an increase of (.4% in investment. Given these developments, the budget deficit, excluding privatization, should improve, according to Bank Al-Maghrib projections, from 7.6% of GDP in 2020 to 7.3% in 2021 and to 6.8% in 2022.