The Moroccan economy is undergoing significant imported inflation in a global context where inflation is likely to take hold, according to a publication by CDG Capital Insight entitled “Inflation-linked bonds – Opportunity for the Moroccan financial market “.
“The configuration in Morocco is very different from those in the United States or Europe. We are seeing neither demand-driven inflation nor a strong increase in loans granted to households, but the fact remains that since the end of 2021 we have experienced a surprising surge in inflation, fueled by the imported component, the rise in the prices of raw materials and energy, as well as a supply shock on the prices of fresh food products as a result of the poor progress of the 2021-2022 agricultural campaign”explain the authors of this publication.
And to maintain that certainly, this one could be attenuated in the future months, but it could also diffuse more widely in the economic fabric if the rise in prices continues to settle durably at the international level.
According to the same source, imported inflation is in the process of eroding the margins of non-financial companies and household savings through the dual effect of the rise in the prices of energy, raw materials and imported consumption and that of the erosion of the real value of the accumulated savings.
The global inflationary context is certainly the result of effects deemed until recently to be transitory, note the authors of the publication, specifying that it is indeed commonly attributed to the disruption of supply chains following the pandemic, to monetary stimuli from banks power plants in the majority of industrialized countries, and to the war in Ukraine. “The current argument seems to suggest that the tightening of these expansionary monetary policies as well as the normalization of supply chains should make it possible to control this galloping inflation fairly quickly”, they add.
The fact remains that the strong recovery of the labor markets in the United States in particular, whose unemployment rate fell to 3.6% recorded at the end of March 2022, as well as in the Euro zone with a level historically low unemployment rate of 6.8% at the end of March 2022, indicates a rise in wages which itself would be on the way to exacerbate price inflation further. This would increase the risk of a lasting slide in inflation over the medium and long term.