National economic growth would stand at 3.2%, on an annual basis, in the second quarter of 2023 (Q2-2023) instead of +2% a year earlier, according to forecasts from the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
In Q2-2023, growth in non-agricultural activity should improve slightly, to settle at +3.2% at an annual rate, while agricultural value added should post an increase of 2.9%, specifies the HCP. which has just published its Economic Update for the first quarter of 2023 and the outlook for the second quarter.
For its part, world demand addressed to Morocco would increase by 4.3%, in annual variation, during the same period, supporting an increase in the contribution of net external demand to national economic growth to 0.9 points, continues the same source.
National domestic demand would be supported by the 3.7% increase in general government consumption expenditure, estimates the HCP, adding that the increase in household consumption expenditure would remain moderate and investment would down, in the wake of the prospect of a further decline in construction activity.
All in all, the contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth should amount to 2.3 points, after 2.2 points a year earlier.
Under these conditions, manufacturing industries should achieve growth of 2.1% in Q2-2023, driven by a recovery in chemical industries. The growth prospects for international demand for fertilizers are favorable to a recovery in the world trade in phosphate-based fertilizers, after a drop of 2.1% in 2022.
Services should maintain their momentum, contributing 2.3 points to overall economic growth, thanks to the continued firming up of tourism and transport.
On the other hand, construction activity should register a drop of 3.5%, in annual variation, against the backdrop of the increase in interest charges and the weak recovery of the real estate market. All in all, value added excluding agriculture should show an increase of 3.2%, in annual variation, in Q2 2023.
In agriculture, activity should continue to recover at a rate of 2.9% in Q2 2023, driven by a mechanical improvement in crop production, after a fall of 17% in 2022. Harvests of market garden crops and rosacea would stagnate, but those of cereals and legumes would experience a significant increase, reflecting a favorable base effect.
The HCP also notes that global economic growth should, in Q2-2023, progress at a moderate pace, while inflationary pressures should decrease due to the stricter monetary policies implemented the previous year.