HomeEconomyThe HCP forecasts 5.9% growth in the national economy in Q3-2021

The HCP forecasts 5.9% growth in the national economy in Q3-2021

The growth of the Moroccan economy should stand at 5.9% for the third quarter of 2021, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

“This development would have been favored by the 19.6% increase in agricultural value added and the 4.2% increase in that of non-agricultural activities”, specifies the HCP in its economic report for the third quarter of 2021 and outlook for the fourth quarter.

The tertiary branches, for their part, contributed +2.2 points to the change in GDP, driven by the good orientation of trade, transport, accommodation and catering activities.

The growth of secondary activities would have slowed down, bringing its contribution to GDP growth to 1 point. Industrial value added would have grown by 3.5%, after + 22.8% a quarter earlier.

Construction activities, for their part, have posted an increase of 7.1%, in a context of improvement in real estate transactions, said the same source.

At the same time, mining activities would have recovered, in the third quarter of 2021, by 3.7%, instead of -1.1% a quarter earlier. The extraction of metallic ores would have improved, in a context of rising export prices for base metals, while that of non-metallic minerals would only have strengthened from August 2021, in line with the recovery of the production of crude phosphate.

The sustained expansion of international demand for phosphate fertilizers, fueled in 2020 by fears of insufficient food supplies in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis and the revival of agricultural policies would have been tempered by spring 2021, the note continues. .

Thus, the prices of fertilizers would have increased at a sustained rate, making their use in agriculture more expensive at the global level compared to 2020.

The increase in freight rates and environmental regulations would also have weighed on the growth of world demand for fertilizers, notes the same source, who notes that this rather gloomy environment would have penalized the activities of local industries manufacturing phosphate fertilizers, but their slowdown would have been short-lived, with a recovery in their exports which would have stimulated an increase in local production of crude phosphate by 5.6% in the third quarter of 2021, in annual variation.

The dynamic of agricultural activities would have continued in the third quarter of 2021, at a rate of + 19.6% instead of + 18.6% a quarter earlier. Plant production would have remained the primary driver of this performance, thanks in particular to an increase in cereal harvests, seasonal market gardening and fruit trees, in a context of increased demand from local agrifood industries.

“Since mid-2020, the exported quantities of canned vegetables and fruits have been increasing continuously, going from 33 and 0.5 thousand tons respectively, on average, to nearly 52 and 2 thousand tons, in the third quarter of 2021” , underlines the HCP.

The volume of external sales of fresh agricultural products is also said to have strengthened, in particular that of tomatoes, watermelons and melons. All in all, the contribution of crops to agricultural growth would have improved compared to the previous quarter, in parallel with the strengthening of that of the animal sectors.

The recovery in poultry production would have been consolidated, with an increase of 52%, year-on-year, in the number of broiler day-old chicks. Milk collection is also said to have intensified, taking advantage of the recovery in the local production of feed for dairy cows, in particular barley and dry beet pulp.




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