the HCP expects growth of 3.6% in 2024

the HCP expects growth of 3.6% in 2024

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2024, taking into account a 4.1% increase in taxes and duties on products net of subsidies, forecasts the High Commission for Planning ( HPC).

This economic outlook for next year is established on the basis of assumptions relating essentially to a recovery of the world economy, inducing a renewed growth in foreign demand addressed to Morocco and an alleviation of the high levels of commodity prices. at the global level, explains the HCP in the Exploratory Economic Budget 2024.

And to continue that these forecasts are based on a scenario of an average cereal production during the 2023/2024 agricultural campaign, and also take into account the renewal of the budgetary policy in force during the year 2023.

Thus, the agricultural sector should generate an increase of 8.3% in 2024 instead of 6.7% in 2023, supported by the consolidation of crop production and the expected recovery in livestock activity, estimates the HCP. .

For their part, non-agricultural activities should maintain their growth rate at nearly 2.9% in 2024.

The secondary sector, meanwhile, should be marked by renewed dynamism, not only in the mining and energy sector, but also in processing industries and construction (building and public works). Thus, its added value should show an increase of 2% in 2024 instead of 0.3% in 2023.

For its part, the mining sector, which had posted a poor performance in its activity since 2022, should experience an increase in its added value of 1.6% in 2024, benefiting from external demand, particularly from India and the Brazil, in the context of an expected fall in the price of phosphate and its derivatives at the international level.

As for the construction sector, its added value should increase at a more sustained pace than that recorded in 2023, thanks to the expected easing of building material prices, the consolidation of public investment and measures relating to support for the acquisition of housing.

With regard to market services, driven by the recovery in domestic demand, they should record growth of 3.1% in 2024, in particular under the effect of the firming up of the performance of tourism activity, trade and transport as well as the improvement of financial activities.

Correlated to tourism activity, air transport should continue to record sustained growth in 2024.

Similarly, maritime transport should benefit from the dynamics of foreign trade, in particular the expected upturn in exports of phosphate and its derivatives.

For its part, trade activity should show good performance in 2024, stimulated by the increase in domestic demand, the continued performance of the national productive fabric, and the deceleration of inflation, thus recording growth of 1 .8% in 2024.

At current prices, GDP should show an increase of 5.5% instead of 6.2% in 2023, forecasts the HCP, noting that inflation, measured by the implicit index of GDP, should thus slow to 1, 8% in 2024.

The exploratory economic budget is likely to enable the government and decision-makers to become aware of the economic development expected in 2024. It will constitute a reference framework for setting economic objectives supported by possible measures to be implemented, in particular , within the framework of the 2024 Finance Law.

The preparation of this economic budget takes into account the provisional aggregates adopted by the national accounts for the year 2022 based on 2014 and the results of the quarterly surveys and the monitoring and economic analysis work carried out by the HCP during the first half of the year. of the year 2023.

These forecasts are also underpinned by a set of assumptions relating to the evolution of exogenous factors governing the Moroccan economy, both nationally and internationally.

The forecasts for the year 2024 are based on the assumption of average cereal production during the 2023/2024 agricultural campaign and the renewal of the budgetary policy in force in 2023 for the revival of economic activity.


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