The Treasury should have recourse to external financial resources to finance its needs in 2023 and this, after the almost exclusive recourse to the internal market for the past two years, provides for the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
This orientation should allow an attenuation of tensions on the internal market, in a context which remains marked by a lack of visibility as regards monetary policy decisions, explains the HCP in the Exploratory Economic Budget 2024. It would also allow the formation of a comfortable reserve in foreign currencies to deal with any external risks relating to the prices of raw materials, adds the same source.
And to continue that the ratio of the external debt of the treasury should, thus, climb to 18.6% of GDP in 2023 instead of 15.9% between 2019 and 2022. The overall debt of the treasury should, consequently, be at nearly 72% of GDP, an increase compared to 71.6% of GDP in 2022. However, the weight of the domestic treasury debt should decrease to go from 54.3% to 53.4% of GDP in 2023 .
Given the weight of guaranteed external debt, which should reach 13.8% of GDP, the overall public debt ratio should show a reduction to 85.8% of GDP against 86.1% of GDP in 2022. The economic budget exploratory is likely to allow the government and decision-makers to become aware of the economic development expected in 2024. It will constitute a reference framework for setting economic objectives supported by possible measures to be implemented, in particular, in the framework of the 2024 Finance Law.
The preparation of this economic budget takes into account the provisional aggregates adopted by the national accounts for the year 2022 based on 2014 and the results of the quarterly surveys and the monitoring and economic analysis work carried out by the HCP during the first half of the year. of the year 2023.
These forecasts are also underpinned by a set of assumptions relating to the evolution of exogenous factors governing the Moroccan economy, both nationally and internationally.
The forecasts for the year 2024 are based on the assumption of average cereal production during the 2023/2024 agricultural campaign and the renewal of the budgetary policy in force in 2023 for the revival of economic activity.