Morocco’s budget deficit is expected to narrow to 6.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, from 7.6% in 2020, according to estimates by Attijari Global Research (AGR).
“Taking into account the forecasts of the 2021 finance law and the growth forecasts of + 6.2% in 2021, fiscal consolidation should gradually resume. Thus, the budget deficit should decrease to 6.2% of GDP in 2021 against 7.6% in 2020 ”, indicates AGR in its latest note“ Budget Focus-Fixed Income ”.
The Treasury debt ratio should deviate from the levels recommended by the convergence criteria, i.e. 60% of GDP, say AGR analysts, noting that it should approach the 80% threshold at the end of the period. year 2021. Thus, according to AGR estimates, the debt ratio would have reached 76.2% at the end of September 2021 after having settled at 77.2% in 2020 and 64.9% in 2019.
Relative to GDP, domestic debt should decrease at the end of September 2021 to 58.1% against 58.7% at the end of 2020. For its part, the external debt ratio should reach 18.1% at the end of September 2021 against 18.5% in 2020 and 20.4% at the end of 2021.