The average gross financing requirement per month would stand at 13.4 billion dirhams in the second half of 2022 (H2-2022), estimates Attijari Global Research (AGR).
“Based on the forecasts of the Treasury’s need by the Finance Law (LF-2022) and the level of its fallout estimated at 61 billion dirhams during the rest of 2022, we estimate that the average gross financing need per month would stand at 13.4 billion dirhams in H2-2022,” indicates AGR in its latest document “Research report fixed income” entitled “Towards a continuation of the rise in rates in 2022”.
This is a relatively high level which should increase pressure on Primary Rates, notes AGR. This need takes into account the materialization of all external financing set at 40 billion dirhams by the Finance Law (LF-2022) and privatization revenue estimated at 5 billion dirhams. At the end of June 2022, the Treasury only drew 5 billion dirhams abroad, i.e. a low realization rate of 13%.
According to the LF-2022 and taking into account an almost exclusive recourse to the internal market, the treasurer of the State would cover 30% of its remaining gross need from outside against 70% on the domestic market. According to AGR’s scenario, the upward pressures on the primary and secondary bond curves would continue by the end of 2022.