The Ministry of Economy and Finance indicated that the relatively low level of inflation is mainly due to the measures taken by the State to preserve the purchasing power of families, somewhat contrary to the global trend.
Indeed, from the IMF to the World Bank via the OECD or the WTO, all the international economic institutions have continued in recent months to revise their growth forecasts downwards for 2022 and 2023. In this context, it is obvious that Morocco has managed to hold its own and contain inflation at low levels, not exceeding the target set by the Central Bank.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance having indeed declared, in its November circumstantial note, that the procedures included the approval of additional support for certain basic materials; such as butane gas, flour and sugar, in addition to supporting transport professionals.
According to the data, the aforementioned measures required the mobilization of 40.75 billion dirhams for the current year, and in the absence of this support, Moroccan households would have had to face a significant increase in consumer prices. through an additional increase in the general price level of 3% compared to the current situation.
For its part, the High Commission for Planning (HCP) indicated that the inflation rate in November was 8.3% (compared to an average of 1.2% before 2022); this is the highest level recorded in the country for decades, due to the 14% increase in food and transport prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance indicated that the inflation rate in Morocco is similar to countries in the world, it continued its high trajectory since the beginning of the year, reaching 6.5% over the twelve months. of the current year.
This increase results, according to the memorandum, from the rise in the prices of energy and food products, in addition to the acceleration of inflation in Morocco’s main trading partners, mainly the countries of the European Union.
However, the ministry estimated that the general rate of inflation in Morocco remained low compared to the levels recorded in neighboring and comparative countries; such as Egypt, which recorded 13.1% and Tunisia 8.1%, but also in advanced economies such as the United States with 8.2% and the euro zone 8.3%, and in emerging countries such as Brazil with 9.7% and India with 6.8%.
For their part, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa will do better, around 3.5%, as will Asia with 4.3% and we even hope and in anticipation according to specialists in the world economy. to a better second part of the year to this “annus horribilis“ experienced in its first six months.
But our economy is not immune, however, to the inflationary pressures experienced by the global economy. The general rise in prices remains dependent on that of food prices, a direct consequence of the conflict in Ukraine. In detail, food products and non-alcoholic beverages recorded an acceleration of almost 15% in their prices over one year, while alcoholic beverages and tobacco became more expensive by 3.4%. Transportation, for its part, saw one of the strongest increases in November with 14.2% year-on-year.
For everything related to the home, we are told (furniture, household items, routine household maintenance… prices rose 6.4% for the same period while clothing reached an annual inflation of more than 5 The rating agency Fitch has raised its inflation forecast for the Kingdom this year from 6.4% to 6.6% and forecasts a slowdown in inflation in 2023 to 3.8%. between Fitch and Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), which forecasts a rate of 2.4% next year.