Economic growth is expected to reach 3.4% in 2023, around its pre-pandemic “average level,” according to the economic and financial report accompanying next year’s Finance Bill (PLF-2024).
“The year 2023 should see a recovery in growth to around its pre-pandemic average level. Forecasts predict growth of around 3.4% in 2023, more than 2 percentage points higher than in 2022,” says the report published on the website of the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
This recovery would be due to a return to growth in agricultural value added, explains the same source, noting that after a weak 2021/2022 cereal harvest of 33.4 million metric quintals, the 2022/2023 harvest, which stands at 55.1 million metric quintals, represents a relative improvement.
The acceleration in growth should also benefit from a return to growth in the secondary sector after the slight contraction in 2022 and from the consolidation of growth in the tertiary sector.
The report also points out that household consumption should benefit, in 2023, from the overall positive behavior of income indicators, including consumer credit (+1% at the end of August) and remittances from Moroccan expatriates (+7.2% at the end of August 2023), as well as from the creation of paid employment (+112,000 jobs in Q2-2023).
It would also benefit from the gradual easing of price rises recorded since last March.
At the same time, the positive trend in imports of capital goods and in equipment loans (+16.6% and +9.3% respectively at the end of August) points to an improvement in the investment dynamic, which is also justified by the trend in capital expenditure under the General State Budget, which rose by 25.4% at the end of September.
Inflation began to ease in 2023, although it remains at high levels. Monthly inflation peaked in February 2023 at 10.1% year-on-year.
The rate began to decelerate the following month, finally reaching 4.9% in July 2023 and stagnating at around 5% in August of the same year.