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Macron / Borne, inevitable divorce?

When Emmanuel Macron spoke the day after the validation of the Constitutional Council of his pension reform, the great unsaid of his speech was devoted to his Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. Unspoken and encrypted message but so clear on the new sequence that awaits Macron’s governance and on the future of the Matignon tenant.

Already the fact of setting a period of one hundred days, giving the vague illusion that her second mandate really begins the day after this pension crisis, is in itself a warning in time about the life of Elisabeth Borne in her post as Prime Minister.

In addition, the fact of coupling this period with specific objectives, all part of the specifications of the Prime Minister, puts a strong pressure on the shoulders of Elisabeth Borne and imposes an obligation of results which will be paid cash.

Emmanuel Macron had entrusted his Prime Minister with three essential objectives, the achievement of which could get the country out of this impasse in which the logic of an imposed reform has locked it up.

The first is to adopt, in a context of high inflation and a notorious decline in purchasing power, economic and social measures that could arouse the support and empathy of French people. After the shock of the structural reform, it is necessary to alternate with reforms of consensus and compromise. The idea being to chase away the spirits of accusation of a governance of cleavages and acute ruptures.

The second challenge is to try to break this unprecedented trade union unanimity which plays the role of fuel for all these major demonstrations in the streets. It is clear that the united trade union bloc which opposed the pension reform played a key role in the expression of this generalized anger which refuses this reform and forces the government to pass it by force. Breaking up this union front necessitates a policy aimed at seducing and attracting the so-called reformist unions into its nets and at isolating the most radical and causing them to lose their credibility and their ability to mobilize. To achieve this objective, Elisabeth Borne must show the full range of her government intelligence.

The third challenge entrusted to the Prime Minister is that of trying to enlarge the parliamentary majority that supports her. In the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, Elisabeth Borne has governed, since her appointment to Matignon, with 49.3, this famous constitutional article which saves her a debate and a vote. parliamentary. This article offers comfort, a form of ease but cannot be set up as a mode of government. Emmanuel Macron knows that the abuse of this 49.3 will end up being perceived as an exercise that kills the breath and the democratic dynamic which consists in allowing the representatives of the nation to discuss, to choose and to decide.

Since the start of this crisis, Emmanuel Macron had bet that he would inevitably be joined in this adventure by the parliamentarians of the Republican Party. However, this party still under the shock of multiple defeats and a merciless war of egos, caught in a whirlwind of contradictions, was not there, forcing the government to go through in force.

Elisabeth Borne has one hundred days to achieve these three objectives. Unless someone makes her a political magic wand, it is hard to imagine that she can succeed in this mission. This gives some the certainty that his days are numbered at Matignon and that President Macron will have no choice but to resort to another government casting.

Emmanuel Macron should logically have separated from Elisabeth Borne the day after the motion of censure which was a hair’s breadth from withdrawing his confidence, but to do so under the pressure of these events would mark the fact that the trade union and political oppositions have succeeded. to force him to kneel down and concede defeat.

By setting him a period of one hundred days and a catalog of challenges to be met, Emmanuel Macron wants to give the illusion that he is still master of clocks and calendars. He also has in his wallet the famous card of political deterrence which consists in threatening to dissolve parliament and to call early legislative elections in the uncertain hope of regaining an absolute majority which allows him to govern vertically and comfortably. .

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