The Household Confidence Index (ICM) in the second quarter of 2023, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP), reached its lowest level since the start of the business survey in 2008, establishing an alarming score of 45 .4 dots. This worrying drop in the morale of Moroccan households reflects a general perception of a deterioration in their standard of living.
During this period, an overwhelming majority of 87.3% of households expressed a deterioration in their standard of living over the past 12 months. Only 10% felt it remained stable, and just 2.7% felt an improvement. The balance of opinion on the past evolution of the standard of living remained negative and reached its lowest level at minus 84.6 points, compared to minus 81.5 points in the previous quarter and minus 73 points in the same quarter last year. previous year, according to the HCP.
For the next 12 months, a majority of 53.4% of households expect their standard of living to deteriorate, while only 36.9% expect it to remain stable and a meager 9.7% hope for an improvement. . The balance of opinion on this indicator is minus 43.7 points, thus showing a deterioration compared to the previous quarter and the same period of the previous year, when it was respectively minus 38.8 points and minus 34 .3 points, specifies the same source.
The outlook for the evolution of unemployment and the purchase of durable goods is just as pessimistic. 85.3% of households anticipate an increase in unemployment over the next 12 months, while only 4.9% remain optimistic about a possible drop in the unemployment rate. The balance of opinion remained negative at minus 80.4 points, even though it increased slightly compared to the previous quarter.
Regarding the purchase of durable goods, 78.8% of households believe that the time is not right for such investments, while only 9.9% see an opportunity. The balance of opinion remains negative at minus 68.9 points, thus demonstrating persistent concern about the state of the economy.
As for the financial situation of households, the outlook is just as bleak. The majority, 53.4%, believe that their income is not enough to cover their expenses, and 44% say they are going into debt or using their savings to make up the shortfall. Only 2.6% say they can save part of their income. The balance of opinion on the current financial situation remained negative at minus 41.4 points, indicating persistent concern.
Regarding the evolution of their financial situation over the past 12 months, an overwhelming majority of 60.6% of households consider that it has deteriorated, while only 3.3% have seen an improvement. The balance of opinion remains negative at minus 57.3 points.
For the next 12 months, only 18.5% of households expect their financial situation to improve, while the majority of 56.9% fear a deterioration and 24.6% hope that it will remain stable. The balance of opinion for this indicator remains negative at minus 6.1 points, signaling continued concern about the financial outlook.
As far as savings are concerned, the situation is hardly encouraging. Only 10.3% of households plan to save over the next 12 months, while 89.7% believe they do not have this possibility. The balance of opinion relating to this indicator remained negative at minus 79.4 points, thus indicating a low capacity to save.
Furthermore, nearly all households (98.1%) report having experienced an increase in food prices over the past 12 months, while a tiny 0.1% have felt a decrease. The balance of opinion is negative at minus 98 points, highlighting widespread concerns about inflation.
Regarding the outlook for food prices for the next 12 months, 72.5% of households expect an increase, while only 4.8% anticipate a decrease. The balance of opinion remains negative at minus 67.7 points, reflecting persistent concerns about rising prices.