The second quarterly meeting of the Board of Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) was held on Tuesday, June 21. The central bank has thus revealed that it expects inflation to reach 5.3% for 2022 before decelerating to 2% in 2023. Its underlying component would reach 5.2% in 2022 then return to 2.5% the year next.
For Wali Bank Al-Maghrib, Abdellatif Jouahri, this inflation remains “imported”, caused by factors of external origin which remain uncontrollable.
Speaking at the press briefing following this meeting, Jouahri explained that “inflationary pressures continue to be fueled mainly by factors of external origin, as reflected in the significant acceleration in inflation of tradable goods”. .
Inflation of non-tradable goods, impacted mainly by internal factors, continues to evolve at a contained level, he observed.
In addition to the rise in fuel and lubricant prices, the acceleration in inflation was driven by the sharp rise in core inflation, which stood at 5.5% instead of 4.4%.
The latter was driven by the surge in prices of its tradable component, in particular food, noted Jouahri, pointing out that the prices of tradable food products included in core inflation indeed increased by 11.6% after 8.5% in the first quarter with in particular an increase of 15.4% after 12.2% in the prices of “cereal-based products” and of 20.4% against 15% of those of “oils” in a context of continued surge in their international prices.
He also maintained that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the tightening of monetary policies and the deterioration of economic prospects also mean that the level of inflation at the international level remains relatively on the rise, specifying in this sense that the States In the United States, inflation would average 7.8% this year, and in the euro zone, it would accelerate to 7.2% in 2022.
At the national level, driven mainly by soaring prices for energy and food products as well as by the acceleration of inflation in the main trading partners, consumer prices rose significantly during the first four months of the year. year with an average increase of 4.5% year-on-year.
This trend is expected to continue in the short term, with inflation projected to reach 5.3% for this year as a whole before decelerating to 2% in 2023.
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