If we stick to the results of the economic survey of the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the morale of Moroccan households improved in the third quarter of 2021 compared to a year earlier. Indeed, the household confidence index (ICM) stood at 65.5 points, instead of 63 points recorded the previous quarter and 60.6 points a year earlier, according to the HCP.
However, the survey moderates the enthusiasm and indicates a touch of pessimism by revealing that only 14.8% against 85.2% of households expect to save over the next 12 months. Also tells us the HCP the balance of opinion relating to this indicator remained negative, at -70.4 points instead of -67.2 points in the previous quarter and -75.1 points in the same quarter of last year. However, we can appreciate a small improvement when we look to the future. But the trend remains gloomy when it comes to the high cost of living, the note bluntly showing that 87.5% of households say that the prices of food products have increased in the last 12 months against a minimal proportion of households (0 , 6%) who feel their decrease.
Suddenly and we come back to it, the balance of opinion remains negative, at -86.9 points, after having been -86.8 points the previous quarter and -75.1 points a year earlier. In addition, the HCP notes that over the next 12 months, food prices should continue to increase according to 73% of households against only 2.1% who expect them to decline. And here too, the balance of opinion remains in the red, standing at -70.9 points, instead of -67.6 points recorded a quarter earlier and -68.1 points a year ago.
However, this index, calculated on the basis of seven indicators, four relating to the general situation and three to the specific situation of the household, shows that 59.4% of families declared, in Q3-2021, a deterioration in the level of life during the last 12 months, 22.7% a maintenance at the same level and 17.9% an improvement, the HCP indicates in its note. And once again we fall back into the red with a balance of opinion on the past evolution of the standard of living which remains negative, at -41.5 points, against -50.8 points in the previous quarter and -35.6 points in the same quarter of last year, specifies the same source.
It is also said in the document that over the next 12 months, 24.4% of households expect a deterioration in the standard of living, 41.8% to remain at the same level and 33.8% to a decline. improvement. The balance of opinion relating to this indicator stands at 9.4 points, thus recording an improvement both compared to Q2-2021 and compared to Q3-2020 where it was at 0.2 point and -17, 4 points respectively.
We can see the improvement this time is in the hope with however this bit of lucidity of our households of which 84.2% against 5.9% expect an increase in unemployment over the next 12 months. Rebelote for the balance of opinion which remains in the red at minus 78.3 points against -69.8 points a quarter earlier and -82 points a year earlier.
In addition, the survey reveals that 72.1% against 10.1% of households consider, in Q3-2021, that the time is not opportune to make purchases of durable goods. The balance of opinion for this indicator remained negative with -62 points recording an improvement both compared to the previous quarter and compared to the same quarter of last year when it stood at -65.6 points and at -63.5 points respectively.
It also indicates that 55.1% of households believe that their income covers their expenses, 40.7% say they get into debt or dip into their savings and 4.2% say they save part of their income. The balance of opinion relating to the current financial situation of households remained negative, at -36.5 points against -38 points the previous quarter and -31.5 points a year earlier.
As for the evolution of their financial situation over the last 12 months, 53.7% against 5.7% of households consider that it has deteriorated. This perception thus remains negative, with a balance of opinion of -48 points against -50 points in the previous quarter and -34 points in the same quarter of last year. Regarding the evolution of their financial situation, over the next 12 months, it is much better, 29.9% against 14.8% of households expect an improvement. The balance of opinion for this indicator was thus established at 15.1 points against 14.8 points in the previous quarter and 11.9 points in the same quarter of the previous year.