HomeEconomyHere's why inflation in Morocco is bigger than forecast

Here’s why inflation in Morocco is bigger than forecast

Inflation in Morocco would be around double digits if three elements were taken into account in the calculations and forecasts, says an economist. While the phenomenon of inflation is global at the moment, Morocco appears well off, but is this really the reality of things?

According to forecasts from Bank Al Maghrib, the Kingdom will display an inflation rate of 1.2% for the year 2021 and an increase expected to 1.6% for 2022.

This upward trend in inflation in 2022 is explained by a global context, impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and an economic recovery in Western countries, which implies greater consumption of electricity, in addition to overconsumption. electricity because of the cold in these countries, especially in Europe.

In Morocco, a country largely dependent on foreign trade and imports, should undergo in this sense a ” imported inflation“. According to economist Omar Kettani, it is above all due ” to a lack of certain basic products and by the fact that the compensation fund has removed products that were previously subsidized ”.

“There are three products that play on inflation, there is wheat when we import it, sugar, because our production is not sufficient and we are one of the largest consumers of sugar in the world. world, and gas which is a new element, in particular because of the context of rupture with Algeria ”, he explained, noting that with the closure of the gas pipeline, Morocco was deprived of 7% of its gas needs which it had to buy on the world market.

If Morocco consequently displays an inflation rate of 1.2%, the economist believes that we must nevertheless be careful, because ” these are averages“.

We cannot talk about inflation in Morocco if we do not talk about the cost of housing, schooling in private schools and the cost of hospitalization in clinics and health costs in general.“, Said the professor at Mohammed V University in Rabat, explaining that taking them into account, inflation should be around double digits, nearly 10%.

In the case of housing inflation in Morocco, it would not be due to rising commodity prices, ” but to an oligopoly situation of certain property developers and to price speculation ”, which means that what constitutes at least 1/3 of the Moroccan household budget experiences markedly high inflation.

“Economic housing sold at 25 million comes to 7 or 8 million for construction and with bank loans it comes to 37 million, and that is not normal”, declared Omar Kettani, and don, estimates- he, ” there are 30 million profits for the developers and interests for the bankers, and one dares to say that it is an economic housing ”.

And to conclude, that if these three factors (price of housing, education and medical coverage) are not taken into account in terms of prices and in relation to the incomes of the middle class, “Inflation doesn’t mean anything anymore, it means inflation for carrots and potatoes on the market.”

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