HomeEconomyHCP: 2.9% growth forecast in 2022

HCP: 2.9% growth forecast in 2022

The High Commission for Planning (HCP), indicated that the national economy should register a growth of 2.9% in 2022, after a rebound of 7.2% expected in 2021.

It appears from the 2022 Forecast Economic Budget just published by the HCP that “given an increase in taxes and duties on products net of subsidies of nearly 3.9%, the gross domestic product (GDP) should record a rate of growth of around 2.9% in 2022 after a rebound of 7.2% expected in 2021”.

In nominal terms, GDP should record a deceleration in its growth rate to 4.7%, an evolution shows the maintenance of the level of inflation, measured by the implicit index of GDP, at 1.8% in 2022, notes the HCP.

It also notes that “the national economic growth forecasts for the year 2022 are based on a scenario of average cereal production during the 2021/2022 agricultural campaign and take into account the new provisions of the 2022 finance law”. , underlined that these projections also assume the continued improvement of global demand addressed to Morocco, the consolidation of direct investments abroad (FDI) and the maintenance of transfers from Moroccans residing abroad (MRE).

However, continues the same source, these prospects “should remain surrounded by strong uncertainties” linked to the evolution of the pandemic situation, in particular the appearance of possible variants, considering that the resulting restrictive measures should have a negative impact supply and demand trends and thereby hamper national economic growth. According to HCP forecasts, the primary sector should post an added value down 1.6% in 2022 compared to an increase of 17.9% the previous year, while non-agricultural activities should benefit from the good performance. of the economic activity of Morocco’s main trading partners and the operationalization of the recovery plan in 2022. in 2021”, estimates the HCP.

The secondary sector should, for its part, continue to record a moderate growth in added value, posting a rate of 3.3% in 2022 instead of 6.8% in 2021, thus returning to the average of 2.7% achieved. during the period 2014-2019, notes the same source, noting that this weak performance of the secondary would be explained by the deceleration of the processing industries which would have recorded an added value in growth of only 3% in 2022.

The agrifood industry, which would have benefited from the fallout from the good agricultural year in 2021, its growth rate would only be 0.8% in 2022. However, the chemical and parachemical industries, the mechanical, metallurgical and electrical industries and the textiles and leather should achieve growth rates in their added value of 4.9%, 4.6% and 4.1% respectively. These industries should benefit from the strengthening of foreign demand addressed to the exporting sectors as well as the national strategy of encouraging the “Made in Morocco” label and new investments planned for the year 2022. The construction sector should also benefit public incentives as well as the recovery of domestic demand to achieve growth of 3.2%. For their part, the mining and energy sectors would achieve added value growth of 4.2% and 4.7% respectively.

As for the tertiary sector, which should grow by 3.6% in 2022, it should continue to suffer the negative effects of the pandemic crisis with, however, an expected recovery in market services, particularly the expected improvement in tourist activities and air transport. following the expected opening of the borders in 2022, indicates the HCP.

The Forecast Economic Budget 2022 presents a revision of the exploratory economic budget published in July 2021. It is a new estimate of the growth of the national economy in 2021 and a revision of its outlook in 2022 and of their effects on internal and external macroeconomic balances.




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