growth forecast at 3.3% in 2023

growth forecast at 3.3% in 2023

The growth of the national economy should stand at 3.3% in 2023, after a sharp deceleration of 1.3% recorded in 2022, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

This growth, achieved taking into account a 2.9% increase in taxes and duties on income net of subsidies, would be supported mainly by primary and tertiary activities, indicates the HCP in the 2024 Exploratory Economic Budget, adding that the inflation, expressed by the implicit index of GDP (gross domestic product), should experience a slowdown to nearly 2.8% instead of 3.1% in 2022.

In detail, this document, which focuses on the economic situation in 2023 and its outlook for 2024, highlights that the late improvement in climatic conditions during the 2022/2023 agricultural campaign after a relatively dry period, should compensate for the water deficit posted in start of the season and slightly improve the reservoirs of the main national dams.

These conditions, continues the same source, should be slightly beneficial to cereal production estimated at 55.1 million quintals (Mqx), up 62% compared to the previous campaign, but rather favorable for the strengthening of market gardening production. and arboriculture, in particular citrus, olive and date production.

Despite the improvement in plant cover and the expected good performance of fodder crops, livestock activity should be confronted with the decline in the number of livestock, under the effect of the succession of years of drought. combined with the increase in production costs, notes the HCP, estimating that this situation should require a massive recourse to the import of cattle and sheep in order to satisfy local demand.

Thus, agricultural value added (VA) should experience an improvement of 6.7% in 2023 after a sharp drop of 12.9% in 2022. Given a 5.3% change in fishing activity maritime, the primary sector should record an increase of 6.6%.

With regard to non-agricultural activities, they should benefit from the dynamics of tertiary activities, but should remain affected by the slowdown in foreign demand and by the continued high level of commodity prices.

The growth of manufacturing industries should see a modest improvement to 1.1%, while the activity of agro-food industries should decelerate under the effect of the slowdown in exports of fruits and seafood products.

The textile activity should also experience a loss of speed linked to the deceleration of exports of ready-made clothing and knitwear. The transportation equipment industry should, for its part, continue its momentum, benefiting from the continuous improvement in external demand.

On the other hand, the activity of the chemical industries should continue to suffer from the impact of the decline in external demand for phosphate fertilizers that began in mid-2022, particularly from India and Brazil. The sluggishness of mining activity linked to the weak external demand for phosphate rock products should ease, cushioned by the maintenance of the high level of their export prices.

As for the construction sector (building and public works), it should continue to lose momentum, with timid growth of 0.4% in 2023. This situation results from the increase in construction and land costs, as well as the tightening financing conditions weakening retail demand for real estate.

Nevertheless, the public works branch should partly offset the drop in the building sector, benefiting from the increase in the envelope of public investments intended for infrastructure.

Under these conditions, the secondary sector should generate a slight increase in added value of 0.3% in 2023.

In addition, the HCP predicts that the resumption of tourism activities in remarkable expansion and air transport and the completion of their catching-up process, should contribute to the increase in the added value of market services by 4.2% in 2023.

This good dynamic of the tourism sector is attributable to the recovery of world tourism, the strengthening of the notoriety of the destination “Morocco” thanks to the exploit of the Lions of the Atlas in the World Cup and the success of the campaign “Morocco land of light” launched by the Moroccan National Tourist Office (ONMT).

Air traffic should therefore be dynamic in 2023, in line with the resumption of tourist activities. However, maritime transport should experience a contraction, against the backdrop of the slowdown in foreign trade, particularly exports of phosphate and its by-products.

The other market services should develop at a moderate pace in line with a slight recovery in domestic demand.

With regard to non-market services, they should continue to show sustained growth following the increase in public administration personnel expenditure.

Overall, the tertiary sector should grow by 4.2% in 2023, thus contributing positively to GDP growth of 2.3 points.

With regard to the labor market, it would be, according to the HCP, marked by a continuous decline in the activity rate of 0.8% in 2023 after a decline of 2.2% in 2022. Thus, and taking into account of a foreseeable increase in net job creation, the unemployment rate at the national level should experience virtual stagnation at 12.2% in 2023.

The exploratory economic budget is likely to enable the government and decision-makers to become aware of the economic development expected in 2024. It will constitute a reference framework for setting economic objectives supported by possible measures to be implemented, in particular , within the framework of the 2024 Finance Law.

The preparation of this economic budget takes into account the provisional aggregates adopted by the national accounts for the year 2022 based on 2014 and the results of the quarterly surveys and the monitoring and economic analysis work carried out by the HCP during the first half of the year. of the year 2023.

These forecasts are also underpinned by a set of assumptions relating to the evolution of exogenous factors governing the Moroccan economy, both nationally and internationally.

The forecasts for the year 2024 are based on the assumption of average cereal production during the 2023/2024 agricultural campaign and the renewal of the budgetary policy in force in 2023 for the revival of economic activity.


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