Economic situation: The key points raised by the DEPF

Here are seven key points from the Department of Studies and Financial Forecasts (DEPF) for the month of September 2021:

Improving international environment

– Global economy: continued recovery in activity at varying rates across the world. Growth is proving to be robust in Europe and the United States, supported by massive stimulus packages and wider deployment of vaccines. The Chinese economy is showing signs of slowing down, impacted by the policy of “zero tolerance” in the face of the pandemic and by vulnerabilities in the real estate sector.

– Euro zone: strong expansion of the economy (5% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022 according to ECB forecasts). Growth rates are proving vigorous among Morocco’s main partners (France, Spain).

– Euro: $ 1.17 on September 20, down 4.2% since early June and 4.6%% since early 2021. Oil: $ 74 per barrel of Brent on September 20, up 44% since early 2021.

Continued sector recovery

– Primary sector: significant recovery in agricultural sector activity, driven by the strengthening of yields of most crops for the 2020-2021 campaign, more particularly, cereal production (+ 221% to 103.2 million quintals).

– Secondary sector: continued recovery in activity, particularly in the construction and public works sectors (cement sales: + 19.3% at the end of August), electrical energy (production: + 6.9% at the end of July) and manufacturing industries (Production: + 10.4% at the end of June, TUC: +10.4 points to 72.3% at the end of July), while maintaining the positive trend in the extractive sector (+2, 5% at the end of June).

– Tertiary sector: reduction in the decline in activity in the tourism sector (arrivals: -11.4% at the end of July) and transport, resulting from the gradual reopening of national borders from mid-June, in parallel with a sustained improvement in telecommunications activity (mobile fleets: + 8.2% and internet: + 15.1% at end-June).

Resumption of the growth engine

– Resumption of vigor in household consumption following the favorable trend in income linked to the achievement of a very good agricultural season, the creation of 215,000 paid jobs in Q2-2021, the recovery in consumer loans (+1 , 1% at the end of July) as well as the good performance of transfers from MRE (+ 45.6% at the end of July) and the moderate trend in inflation (+ 1.1% at the end of July). Resumption of investment following the continued recovery in imports of capital goods (+ 13.3% at the end of July), the increase in FDI receipts (+ 10.5% at the end of July), the resumption of budgetary investment (+ 5.4% at the end of August) and the revival of the dynamic of new businesses (+ 87% at the end of June), indicates the DEPF. The recovery in consumption and investment, two components of internal demand which constitute the primary engine of growth in Morocco, bodes well for the national economy.

Worsening trade deficit

– Continued strengthening of foreign trade at the end of July 2021, which returned to its pre-crisis level, under the joint effect of the increase in exports (+ 23.2%) and imports (+ 21%), resulting in an improvement in the coverage rate of 1.1 point, with however a widening of the trade deficit of 17.9%. – Official Reserve Credits cover 6 months and 24 days of B&S imports.

Reducing the budget deficit

– Reduction of the budget deficit of 6.9% following an increase in ordinary revenue (+ 11.6%) greater than that of ordinary expenditure (+ 7.2%), in parallel with the increase in the surplus of 2.8% special treasury accounts, the DEPF said.

Credit deceleration

– Deceleration in the growth of bank loans (+ 1.6% at the end of July 2021), attributable to the slowdown in loans to the non-financial sector (+ 3%), more particularly loans to non-financial corporations (+ 0.8%) despite the acceleration of loans to households (+ 5.6%). – Resumption of the upward trend of the Masi & Madex stock indices during the month of August 2021 with + 3.2% each compared to the end of July 2021, reducing their performance to + 12.5% ​​and + 12.2% by report at the end of December 2020, underlines the DEPF in its economic report for the month of September.