National economic growth is expected to stand at 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2021, in annual variation, instead of a drop of 5.1% in the same quarter of the previous year, according to the High Commission for Planning ( HCP).
This development is explained by an increase of 18.5% in agricultural value added and 2.5% in that of non-agricultural activities, indicates the HCP in its economic report for the third quarter of 2021 and outlook for the fourth quarter.
Agricultural activities should grow by 18.5%, year-on-year, specifies the note which notes that the growth prospects for plant production would remain favorable, but the developments in animal sectors would be mixed, due in particular to the continued recovery of the market. poultry production and the weak dynamic of that of red meat, linked to the moderation of slaughterings of large flocks.
Value added excluding agriculture, for its part, should grow by 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, year-on-year, notes the same source, noting that in the tertiary sector, activity should continue to improve in market services. in particular trade, transport and catering.
Overall, the tertiary sector should contribute +1.4 point to the change in GDP, instead of +0.7 point for the secondary sector. In the same wake, industrial, electricity and construction activities should continue to strengthen, which began at the start of 2021.
On the other hand, the growth of mining activity should slow down, standing at + 0.8%, on an annual basis, instead of + 8.8% a year earlier, underlines the same source.
The HCP also estimates that national domestic demand will continue to recover for the fourth successive quarter, driven by the strengthening of household spending, particularly in food and manufactured goods and by increased spending on restaurants, leisure services and transport. .
Also, public spending should continue its upward trend, placing the increase in public consumption at 4.5%. Gross investment should increase, for its part, at a rate of 8.1%, driven by the good orientation of investment in industrial and construction products.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, in the absence of further epidemic waves, global growth would continue to improve in the fourth quarter of 2021, despite the persistence of regional and sectoral contrasts. It would remain dependent on the evolution of the health situation, the deployment of vaccines throughout the world and the extent of macroeconomic support measures.
According to the HCP, inflationary pressures, linked to the recovery in world demand, to tensions on the supply of raw materials and semi-finished products and to the increase in transport prices, would remain strong, before gradually fading with increasing supply-side capacities and stabilizing costs.
Driven by trade in advanced and emerging economies, world trade in goods should remain positive, but its momentum should weaken slightly, after the mechanical upward adjustment in the second and third quarters of 2021, following the sharp decline in 2020. In this regard context, global demand addressed to Morocco would improve by 3%, in annual variation, during the same period.