The Department of Studies and Financial Forecasts (DEPF), published its economic report of November 2021. It emerges from this a “gradual and significant” recovery of national economic activity, driven by the progress made in anti-vaccination. coronavirus, stimulus measures initiated and very positive results of the agricultural campaign.
There are thus signs of recovery in several non-agricultural branches of activity, with a strong contribution to national added value, were recorded in 2021, in this case, the mining and manufacturing industries, electric power, construction. and telecommunications.
However, continues the same source, “a persistence of recessive tensions” has been observed in certain sectors, particularly tourism, despite the gradual recovery that began in June. In terms of domestic demand, household consumption continues to grow, supported by the improvement in income generated by the excellent agricultural season, the good performance of transfers from Moroccans living abroad (MRE), the consolidation of the resumption of job creations (+572,000 paid jobs in Q3-2021) and the strengthening of loans granted to households, in a context of moderate inflation, reports the DEPF.
In addition, investment continues to grow, stimulated by rising imports of capital goods, rising foreign direct investment (FDI) receipts and growth in public investment. This investment dynamic seems to be confirmed by the significant growth in business start-ups (+ 53% year-on-year at the end of August 2021).
Regarding foreign trade, exports are maintaining their momentum, exceeding their pre-crisis level (+ 8.7% compared to the end of September 2019), underlines the DEPF, specifying that this good export performance concerned all sectors, notably OCP sales, automotive, aeronautics, food industry, electronics and electricity, and textiles and leather. In addition, the rate of growth of imports exceeded that of exports. This change resulted in a slight decrease of 0.6 point in the coverage rate, reaching 60.3%. Regarding Official Reserve Assets (AOR), they cover 7 months and one day of imports of goods and services.
In terms of public finances, the budget deficit has practically stagnated, due in particular to the increase in ordinary revenue, which is greater than that of ordinary expenditure and a significant drop in the surplus of special treasury accounts.
As for the financing of the economy, this is marked by a slowdown in the growth of bank loans, due in particular to the slowdown in the growth of loans to the non-financial sector, despite the acceleration in loans granted to households. Also, the upward trend of the Masi & Madex stock market indices remained at the end of October 2021, reducing their performance, compared to the end of December 2020, to + 20.1% and + 19.6% respectively.
In addition, the DEPF informs that the world economy is continuing to recover despite the uncertainties linked to the evolution of the pandemic and the risks of inflationary pressures. In the United States, growth prospects remain robust despite slowing economic growth in the third quarter of 2021.
The recovery is also consolidating in the Euro zone, Morocco’s main economic partner, underlines the DEPF. In emerging countries, the Chinese economy continues to recover, although at a slower pace. Likewise, the Indian economy is expected to grow at a vigorous pace. In commodity markets, upward price trends are somewhat dampened by the dollar rebound and the resurgence of the pandemic in Europe.