Economic activity is expected to grow by 7.2% during the third quarter of 2021, in annual variation, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP). “Taking into account a 19.1% increase in agricultural value added and a 5.4% increase in sectors other than agriculture, economic activity should grow by 7.2% in the third quarter of 2021, instead of ‘a contraction of -6.7% in the same quarter of the previous year,’ indicates the HCP, which has just made public its economic outlook for Q2-2021 and outlook for Q3-2021.
The added value excluding agriculture would show an increase of 5.4%, in the third quarter of 2021, year-on-year, said the same source, adding that in the tertiary sector, activity would continue to improve in market services, especially trade, transport and catering. Overall, the tertiary sector would contribute +2.9 points to the evolution of the GDP, instead of +1.1 point for the secondary sector. In the same wake, industrial, electricity and construction activities should continue to strengthen, which began at the start of the year. On the other hand, the growth of mining activity should slow down to + 1.6%, on an annual basis, instead of + 4.2% a year earlier.
The HCP also estimates that agricultural added value would grow by 19.1%, in annual variation, bringing its contribution to overall economic growth to 2.1 points. The evolution of crop production should remain strong, but the strong increase in animal production, recorded in the second quarter of 2021, should gradually be amortized in the third quarter, with the gradual dissipation of the effect of the base adjustment linked to confinement. health center which was operated on in the second quarter of 2020.
For its part, national domestic demand should continue to recover for the third successive quarter, driven by the increase in household spending, in a context of firming purchases of food and manufactured goods and an increase in expenditure on restaurants and services. leisure and transport. Public expenditure should remain relatively dynamic, placing the increase in public consumption at 4.3%.