The national economy should register growth of + 2.9% in 2022, against + 3.0% initially forecast, estimates BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) in its annual publication “Strategy” 2021-2022.
“For our part, in our updated central scenario, we are counting on economic growth of + 2.9% in 2022 (vs. + 3.0% initially), taking into account a more marked deterioration in agricultural production in a context of significant rainfall delay with a deficit of nearly -60% at the beginning of January 2022 “, indicates BKGR in its report entitled” The bet of a successful exit from the pandemic crisis “.
Under these conditions, the stock market should maintain an upward course, depending on the arbitrage with the rate and the realization of expected strategic operations including possibly new IPOs (2 to 3 expected), possible partial privatizations (Marsa Maroc and possibly Maroc Telecom) and capital mergers (Atlantasanad and Crédit du Maroc, Sanlam Maroc and Allianz), adds the same source. According to BKGR, the good direction of the economy in 2021 made it possible to avoid a slide towards the worst in view of the significant damage caused by the recession of 2020. It should, of course, make it possible to restart our country but requires, more than ever, strong support in terms of budget rationalization to avoid any risk of disintegration.
From 2022, the Budgetary policy must give priority to the consolidation of the public accounts and to the recovery, estimates the institute, adding that it is, in fact, imperative to again compress the current deficit to bring it back to a low level. level closer to that before the crisis (-4.3% in 2019) and stabilize it around -3.5% of gross domestic product in the medium term. “For this, the 2022 budget is part of a logic of reducing the overall deficit in order to limit the pressure on the public debt and to keep enough room for maneuver both to be able to face possible future shocks and to be able to finance , the opportune moment, the development ambitions of the New Development Model ”, point out the specialists of BKGR. While waiting to be able to truly engage in this structuring project for the country, Morocco is now seeking to respond positively and simultaneously to two major requirements, notes BKGR.