Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) said it forecast a record 87 billion dirhams (MMDH) in transfers from Moroccans living abroad (MRE) for 2021, an increase of 27.7%.
In a press release sanctioning the work of the third quarterly meeting of its Board for 2021, held Wednesday, BAM specifies that “after an increase of 4.9% in 2020, transfers of MRE would show a significant increase of 27.7 % in 2021 to reach a record 87 billion dirhams, before falling by 5% to 82.7 billion dirhams in 2022 ″.
The Central Bank also indicates that foreign trade data at the end of August show a general acceleration in the recovery of trade in goods.
This dynamic should continue with an increase in exports of 22.6% in 2021 and then 5.9% in 2022, driven mainly by sales of phosphate and derivatives and automotive construction, estimates the same source.
At the same time, imports should increase by 19.6% in 2021, mainly reflecting the expected increases in purchases of capital and consumer goods, as well as the increase in the energy bill, before showing a deceleration in their rate. rate of 4% in 2022.
In addition, BAM stresses that health restrictions continue to weigh on travel receipts with a further decrease of 8.6% to 33.3 billion dirhams expected in 2021, after that of 53.7% in 2020. In 2022, under the assuming a significant reduction in these measures, these revenues should rebound to MAD 60.7 billion, a level which remains however well below that of MAD 78.7 billion recorded in 2019.
Under these conditions, the current account deficit would widen from 1.5% of GDP in 2020 to 2.5% in 2021, before easing to 1.4% in 2022.
Regarding foreign direct investment flows, they should hover around the equivalent of 3% of GDP over the forecast horizon, according to BAM. Taking into account, in particular, the planned external financing of the Treasury and the allocation of special drawing rights (SDR) of MAD 10.8 billion, the official reserve assets would stand at MAD 335 billion at the end of 2021 and at MAD 345.1 billion. at the end of 2022, i.e. the equivalent of more than 7 months of imports of goods and services.