Transfers from Moroccans residing abroad (MRE) should amount to 87.3 billion dirhams (MMDH) in 2022, according to Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM).
“After a record level of 93.7 billion recorded in 2021, transfers from MREs would gradually return to their pre-crisis level, totaling 87.3 billion in 2022 and 84 billion in 2023”, indicates the Central Bank in a press release published. at the end of the second quarterly meeting of its Board for the year 2022.
Benefiting from the reopening of borders and the launch of Operation Marhaba, travel receipts, for their part, will experience a gradual recovery, rising from 34.3 billion dirhams in 2021 to 54.3 billion dirhams in 2022 and to 70.9 billion dirhams. in 2023, forecasts BAM.
With regard to imports, they would increase by 24.2% in 2022, mainly in connection with the increase in the energy bill which would reach 122.4 billion dirhams and the planned increase in the acquisition of raw products and semi-finished products. products, says the same source. In 2023, the increase should be limited to 0.3%, due in particular to the expected fall in the prices of energy products.
At the same time, exports would improve by 22% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023, driven mainly by sales of phosphate and derivatives and the automotive sector which would stand at 102.7 billion dirhams and 114.7 billion dirhams respectively in 2023, according to the Central Bank.
Under these conditions, the current account deficit would widen to 4.9% of GDP in 2022, after 2.3% in 2021, before easing to 3.8% in 2023. Regarding Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) , revenue would be close to the equivalent of 3% of GDP over the forecast horizon.
In total, and under the assumption in particular of the materialization of the provisional external financing of the Treasury, official reserve assets would stand at 342.5 billion dirhams at the end of 2022 and 346.4 billion dirhams at the end of 2023, thus ensuring coverage around 6 months of imports of goods and services.